As low-carbon emission reduction has become a global consensus, many countries in the world are actively getting rid of their dependence on traditional energy and accelerating the transition from traditional energy to clean energy.
However, the world has a long history of relying on traditional energy, and it is difficult to achieve it overnight. In the process of transformation, there has been an obvious bottleneck in the supply of clean energy. It still needs to rely on natural gas, oil, coal and other traditional energy sources to supplement it, which boosts the demand for traditional energy in the short term. The energy gap will be difficult to supply in a short period of time, causing the price of traditional energy to skyrocket, and the global energy crisis will spread in 2021.
Oil and gas prices soar as Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies
Energy shortage is a pain in the process of adjusting the global energy structure, but the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022 amplifies and deepens the impact of this energy crisis.
Russia has a very important position in the world's energy supply. As of 2021, Russia is the world's largest exporter of natural gas, the second largest exporter of crude oil after Saudi Arabia, and the third largest exporter of coal after Indonesia and Australia. Russia's energy is mainly exported to Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, especially Europe's energy dependence on Russia is very high. In 2021, Europe's imports of natural gas, coal and crude oil from Russia will account for 35%, 28% and 27% of its total imports. . At the same time, Russia’s economy also relies on energy exports. In 2021, Russia’s natural gas, coal, and crude oil exports to Europe will account for 74%, 49%, and 32%. Banning Russia’s energy imports is equivalent to cutting off Russia’s economic lifeline.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the United States and the European Union sanctioned Russia, and successively issued a number of bans on the import of Russian energy, and received support from many countries. Since the implementation of the sanctions, Russia's energy exports have dropped sharply, and energy sales have fallen sharply, but Europe has also paid a price for this. Europe is highly dependent on Russia's energy, especially natural gas. Prices skyrocketed.
Russia is an important crude oil exporter in the world. Under the sanctions, the export of crude oil has been hindered. At the same time, as a warring country, the demand for oil has increased, and the export volume has further declined. As a result, the crude oil market is in short supply and the price has been rising. China's dependence on oil imports is as high as 70%. Russia and China are closely related to energy. About 15% of the oil will be imported from Russia in 2021. This energy crisis is also deeply implicated in China.
What ordinary people feel most deeply is the rise in oil prices. Since 2022, domestic gasoline prices have undergone 10 rounds of adjustments. After the tenth round of adjustments on May 31, the domestic unit price of refined oil has "broken 9". On June 14, domestic refined oil will open the 11th price adjustment window in 2022, when domestic No. 92 gasoline will fully enter the "9 yuan era". Oil prices will "break 10" in some regions. The imbalance between energy supply and demand takes time to adjust, and it is only a matter of time before China's oil price fully enters the ten-yuan era. The rise in oil prices will curb the consumption of oil vehicles to a certain extent. It is not the new energy vehicles that will eventually defeat the oil vehicles, but also the oil price.
The impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine exceeded expectations, and the United States finally shot a stone in the foot
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to roil global energy markets, with the United States playing a role in fueling the crisis. Unlike Europe, the United States is also an important energy exporter in the world, and its energy dependence on Russia is very small. The amount of crude oil imported to Russia in 2021 will only account for 3% of its total imports, so the United States can safely fan the flames and profit from it.
In order to get rid of Russia's energy dependence, Europe turned to the United States to import, and the United States has become Europe's largest source of natural gas imports. The U.S. sent nearly three-quarters of its LNG to Europe in the first four months of 2022, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday, with daily supplies to the region more than three times the average of last year.
Although the United States does not need to rely on external energy supplies as in Europe, the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine far exceeds expectations. The rising international energy prices still cause a lot of trouble to the US economy. At the same time, natural disasters such as extreme weather and hurricanes are superimposed in recent years. Influenced by frequent occurrences, the domestic energy supply problem in the United States has become prominent. Fuel prices in the U.S. are hitting record highs and inflation has soared to a 40-year high.
On June 6, U.S. President Joe Biden declared an energy emergency in the United States, blaming Russia in part for the crisis. "Multiple factors are threatening the ability of the United States to provide sufficient power to meet anticipated consumer demand," Biden said in his emergency statement. extreme weather events."
In order to ease the tension of domestic electricity and oil prices in the United States and speed up the supply of new energy, the White House has recently issued five consecutive statements authorizing the use of the "Defense Production Act", announcing that the solar modules produced in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam will be implemented for 24 months. Tariff exemptions to accelerate domestic U.S. production of clean energy technologies, grid facilities, and more.
Energy transition will accelerate, and China will intensively introduce new energy development policies
The violent fluctuation of energy prices in the short term has made all countries in the world more deeply aware of the importance of getting rid of energy dependence. This conflict may catalyze the rapid development of new energy in the world, promote the pace of replacement of traditional energy by new energy, and stimulate China. Development and utilization of new energy sources such as photovoltaics and wind energy.
In order to support the development of the energy industry, China has recently introduced intensive policies, making it clear that new energy is one of the cores of future policies. On May 30, the General Office of the State Council forwarded the "Implementation Plan for Promoting the High-quality Development of New Energy in the New Era" by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration. The plan proposes that by 2030, my country's total installed capacity of wind power and solar power should reach the goal of more than 1.2 billion kilowatts, and accelerate the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system.
On June 1, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration and other nine departments jointly issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development", which clearly stated that by 2025, the total renewable energy consumption will reach the standard of 1 billion tons During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the increase in renewable energy power generation accounted for more than 50% of the increase in electricity consumption in the whole society, and the power generation from wind power and solar energy doubled.
On June 7, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Further Promoting the Participation of New Energy Storage in the Electricity Market and Dispatching Application", which further clarified that the new energy storage can be used as an independent energy storage to participate in the power market positioning, and establish and improve the relevant market. mechanism, price mechanism and operation mechanism, improve the utilization level of new energy storage, and guide the healthy development of the industry. The domestic energy storage industry has received favorable policies again.
With the boost from the intensive introduction of policies, as well as the easing of the epidemic and the orderly progress of Shanghai's unblocking and resumption of work and production, the domestic new energy sector also ushered in a rebound. Since May, new energy sectors such as wind power, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles have rebounded by about 30%, with outstanding performance. The sector continued to rise in June.
Accelerating the transformation from traditional energy to clean energy and keeping the job of energy firmly in our own hands is the biggest warning to the world from this conflict. Looking forward to the future, the prosperity of the new energy industry chain will continue to improve. Renewable energy such as photovoltaics, wind power, and hydropower will occupy a higher position in the energy structure. At the same time, as a key part of the power system, energy storage may be the future speed forward.
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